Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-11-14 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 7 - 2 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

DAL: 72.8%

BOS: 27.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.76

BOS: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	23	2	92.0%	2.77	2	0.77
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	38	31	7	81.6%	3.36	2	-3.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs BOS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BOS 6 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL
2026-01-20	DAL 6 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-11-14	DAL 7 - 2 BOS	DAL	DAL
2024-10-24	BOS 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-19	BOS 4 - 3 DAL	BOS	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	1	1.05
1	BOS	15	0	0.89
2	DAL	17	1	1.04
2	BOS	11	0	0.81
3	DAL	18	0	1.27
3	BOS	13	2	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 7 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.8 - 2.6