New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2024-11-14 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 5 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 51.4%

NYI: 48.6%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.32

NYI: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	32	27	5	84.4%	4.05	6	-0.95
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	26	24	2	92.3%	1.80	0	-0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • VAN at home vs NYI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VAN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VAN
2025-12-19	NYI 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	NYI
2025-03-26	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	NYI
2024-11-14	VAN 2 - 5 NYI	NYI	VAN
2024-01-09	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	4	0	0.05
1	NYI	15	1	1.06
2	VAN	6	0	0.41
2	NYI	18	2	1.59
3	VAN	29	0	1.34
3	NYI	9	3	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 5 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1