Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2024-11-15 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

CBJ: 58.9%

PIT: 41.1%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.43

PIT: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	23	21	2	91.3%	3.12	0	1.12
PIT	Tristan Jarry	39	33	6	84.6%	3.55	4	-2.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CBJ at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2025-03-21	PIT 6 - 3 CBJ	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	9	0	0.29
1	PIT	15	0	1.16
2	CBJ	21	0	0.99
2	PIT	16	0	1.17
3	CBJ	23	4	2.26
3	PIT	13	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1