St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 56.1%

STL: 43.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.27

STL: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 40%

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	31	28	3	90.3%	2.50	0	-0.50
STL	Jordan Binnington	18	16	2	88.9%	1.91	2	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 0% • BOS at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	STL 2 - 5 BOS	BOS	STL
2025-12-04	BOS 5 - 2 STL	BOS	STL
2024-11-16	BOS 2 - 3 STL	STL	BOS
2024-11-12	STL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	STL
2024-03-11	BOS 1 - 5 STL	STL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	13	1	0.91
1	STL	14	0	0.73
2	BOS	7	0	0.41
2	STL	20	0	1.12
3	BOS	10	1	0.55
3	STL	15	0	0.61
4	BOS	1	0	0.04
4	STL	2	0	0.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7