Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 41.7%

EDM: 58.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.29

EDM: 3.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	1	1.88
1	EDM	10	1	0.58
2	TOR	7	0	0.29
2	EDM	15	0	0.99
3	TOR	11	1	0.65
3	EDM	18	0	0.90
4	TOR	1	0	0.12
4	EDM	1	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.8