Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-11-16 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 59.9%
EDM: 40.1%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.61
EDM: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
| Stat | TOR | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.841 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.836 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.73 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs EDM: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | EDM 2 - 5 TOR | TOR | EDM |
| 2025-12-13 | TOR 3 - 6 EDM | EDM | TOR |
| 2025-02-01 | EDM 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | EDM |
| 2024-11-16 | TOR 4 - 3 EDM | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-03-23 | TOR 6 - 3 EDM | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 01:42 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 01:51 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 18:31 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 14:07 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 13:08 | TOR | Goal |
| 4 | 00:40 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.6 - 2.9