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Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
TOR: 47.9%
EDM: 52.1%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.15
EDM: 3.33
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 55%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
StatTOREDM
Season SV%0.9140.906
Last 5 SV%0.8630.837
SV% vs Opponent—0.836
GAA2.742.73
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs EDM: 2-1
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2026-02-03EDM 2 - 5 TORTOREDM
2025-12-13TOR 3 - 6 EDMEDMEDM
2025-02-01EDM 3 - 4 TORTOREDM
2024-11-16TOR 4 - 3 EDMTOREDM
2024-03-23TOR 6 - 3 EDMTORTOR

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
101:42EDMGoal
103:53TORGoal
201:51EDMGoal
313:08TORGoal
314:07TORGoal
318:31TORGoal
400:40TORGoal

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers
Expected: 3.1 - 3.3