Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 46.2%

EDM: 53.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.52

EDM: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	30	27	3	90.0%	2.60	1	-0.40
EDM	Stuart Skinner	22	18	4	81.8%	2.94	2	-1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	EDM 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	EDM
2025-12-13	TOR 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-01	EDM 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	EDM
2024-11-16	TOR 4 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM
2024-03-23	TOR 6 - 3 EDM	TOR	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	1	1.88
1	EDM	10	1	0.58
2	TOR	7	0	0.29
2	EDM	15	0	0.99
3	TOR	11	1	0.65
3	EDM	18	0	0.90
4	TOR	1	0	0.12
4	EDM	1	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.4