New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-11-16 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 0 New Jersey Devils
🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 43.5%
NJD: 56.5%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.50
NJD: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 7.3
Over 5.5: 74%
Over 6.5: 62%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 23-19-1 | 0.883 SV% | 3.07 GAA
| Stat | TBL | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.873 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.905 | 0.792 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.32 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | NJD 4 - 8 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-18 | TBL 5 - 1 NJD | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-11 | TBL 3 - 5 NJD | NJD | TBL |
| 2025-01-11 | NJD 3 - 2 TBL | NJD | NJD |
| 2024-11-16 | TBL 4 - 0 NJD | TBL | NJD |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:27 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:39 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:40 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:48 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 0 New Jersey Devils
Expected: 3.5 - 3.2
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