New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-11-16 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 0 New Jersey Devils
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 54.7%
NJD: 45.3%
Expected Goals
TBL: 2.93
NJD: 3.35
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
| Stat | TBL | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.884 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.899 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.905 | 0.792 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.32 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | NJD 4 - 8 TBL | TBL | NJD |
| 2025-11-18 | TBL 5 - 1 NJD | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-11 | TBL 3 - 5 NJD | NJD | TBL |
| 2025-01-11 | NJD 3 - 2 TBL | NJD | NJD |
| 2024-11-16 | TBL 4 - 0 NJD | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:27 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:39 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:40 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:48 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 54.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 0 New Jersey Devils
Expected: 2.9 - 3.3