Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 47.7%

BUF: 52.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.44

BUF: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

BUF

D. Levi

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	25	23	2	92.0%	2.67	2	0.67
BUF	D. Levi	32	27	5	84.4%	4.17	4	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PHI at home vs BUF: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	BUF
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	2	1.48
1	BUF	10	0	0.63
2	PHI	16	1	0.79
2	BUF	16	1	0.93
3	PHI	11	1	1.90
3	BUF	12	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0