Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 45.2%

BUF: 54.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.11

BUF: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 36%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs BUF: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	PHI
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	2	1.48
1	BUF	10	0	0.63
2	PHI	16	1	0.79
2	BUF	16	1	0.93
3	PHI	11	1	1.90
3	BUF	12	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0