San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

PIT: 62.7%

SJS: 37.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.55

SJS: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

SJS

Vitek Vanecek - 17-9-3 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	34	29	5	85.3%	3.74	2	-1.26
SJS	Vitek Vanecek	41	35	6	85.4%	6.20	5	0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	PIT 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	PIT
2025-10-18	SJS 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-27	SJS 2 - 1 PIT	SJS	PIT
2024-11-16	PIT 4 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT
2024-03-14	PIT 6 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	1	0.86
1	SJS	12	0	0.59
2	PIT	18	0	0.93
2	SJS	10	0	0.41
3	PIT	15	1	1.04
3	SJS	13	0	0.63
4	PIT	6	0	0.65
4	SJS	1	0	0.04
5	PIT	5	3	2.72
5	SJS	5	2	2.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.7