Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2024-11-16 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

MIN: 47.7%

DAL: 52.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.13

DAL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	40	38	2	95.0%	2.72	1	0.72
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	22	1	95.7%	2.03	1	1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MIN at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	DAL
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	12	0	0.38
1	DAL	22	0	0.95
2	MIN	12	0	0.66
2	DAL	14	0	0.92
3	MIN	19	1	0.99
3	DAL	15	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2