Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions
2024-11-16 • Xcel Energy Center
Minnesota Wild 1 - 2 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MIN: 53.5%
DAL: 46.5%
Expected Goals
MIN: 2.83
DAL: 3.10
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 20-9-6 | 0.906 SV% | 2.64 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | MIN | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.912 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.895 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.878 | 0.930 |
| GAA | 2.47 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • MIN at home vs DAL: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | MIN 5 - 2 DAL | MIN | MIN |
| 2025-10-14 | DAL 5 - 2 MIN | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-04-06 | MIN 3 - 2 DAL | MIN | MIN |
| 2025-03-24 | DAL 3 - 0 MIN | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-12-27 | DAL 2 - 3 MIN | MIN | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:43 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:24 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:10 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Minnesota Wild 1 - 2 Dallas Stars
Expected: 2.8 - 3.1