Columbus Blue Jackets at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-11-18 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 50.5%

CBJ: 49.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.76

CBJ: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	28	23	5	82.1%	2.40	3	-2.60
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	29	28	1	96.6%	2.83	0	1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs CBJ: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	CBJ 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	CBJ
2026-03-29	CBJ 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	CBJ
2026-02-26	BOS 4 - 2 CBJ	BOS	BOS
2024-12-28	BOS 4 - 0 CBJ	BOS	BOS
2024-12-27	CBJ 6 - 2 BOS	CBJ	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	18	0	1.10
1	CBJ	13	2	0.97
2	BOS	15	0	1.04
2	CBJ	4	1	0.41
3	BOS	10	0	0.69
3	CBJ	18	0	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 1 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9