Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-11-18 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 0 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 43.7%

EDM: 56.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.76

EDM: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	30	30	0	100.0%	3.23	2	3.23
EDM	Calvin Pickard	25	22	3	88.0%	3.51	4	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-14	MTL 4 - 1 EDM	MTL	EDM
2025-10-23	EDM 6 - 5 MTL	EDM	EDM
2025-03-06	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM
2024-11-18	MTL 3 - 0 EDM	MTL	EDM
2024-03-19	EDM 3 - 2 MTL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	1	0.75
1	EDM	18	2	2.10
2	MTL	14	1	1.06
2	EDM	9	0	0.47
3	MTL	19	2	1.70
3	EDM	12	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 0 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0