Anaheim Ducks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-11-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 68.8%

ANA: 31.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.59

ANA: 2.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	27	23	4	85.2%	2.71	2	-1.29
ANA	Lukas Dostal	36	34	2	94.4%	4.14	3	2.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DAL at home vs ANA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	ANA 3 - 1 DAL	ANA	ANA
2025-12-19	ANA 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	ANA
2025-11-06	DAL 5 - 7 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-03-18	DAL 4 - 3 ANA	DAL	DAL
2025-02-04	ANA 2 - 1 DAL	ANA	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	0	0.77
1	ANA	17	0	0.81
2	DAL	16	1	1.16
2	ANA	7	0	0.60
3	DAL	28	2	2.20
3	ANA	12	2	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5