Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-11-19 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 54.4%

EDM: 45.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.21

EDM: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	31	26	5	83.9%	2.33	0	-2.67
EDM	Stuart Skinner	29	27	2	93.1%	2.52	1	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • OTT at home vs EDM: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	EDM 5 - 4 OTT	EDM	OTT
2025-10-21	OTT 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-22	EDM 3 - 1 OTT	EDM	EDM
2024-11-19	OTT 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-03-24	OTT 5 - 3 EDM	OTT	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	13	0	0.73
1	EDM	20	0	0.99
2	OTT	11	1	0.69
2	EDM	11	0	0.90
3	OTT	15	0	1.10
3	EDM	8	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.5