Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-19 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

PIT: 49.2%

TBL: 50.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.17

TBL: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	0	0.37
1	TBL	15	1	1.00
2	PIT	9	0	0.61
2	TBL	18	2	1.28
3	PIT	5	0	0.19
3	TBL	25	0	1.40
4	PIT	1	0	0.10
4	TBL	2	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3