Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2024-11-19 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 46.5%
TBL: 53.5%
Expected Goals
PIT: 2.97
TBL: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 45%
Over 6.5: 29%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | PIT | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.844 | 0.922 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TBL: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | TBL 6 - 3 PIT | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-13 | PIT 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | PIT |
| 2025-12-04 | TBL 3 - 4 PIT | PIT | TBL |
| 2025-03-25 | TBL 6 - 1 PIT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-12 | PIT 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:05 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 13:05 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 05:41 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 12:49 | PIT | Goal |
| 4 | 03:58 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.0 - 3.0
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