New York Islanders at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2024-11-19 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 2 - 1 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 49.1%
NYI: 50.9%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.27
NYI: 2.69
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
| Stat | CGY | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.851 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.957 | — |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs NYI: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | NYI 3 - 2 CGY | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-01-17 | CGY 4 - 2 NYI | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-03-22 | NYI 3 - 4 CGY | CGY | NYI |
| 2024-11-19 | CGY 2 - 1 NYI | CGY | NYI |
| 2024-02-10 | NYI 2 - 5 CGY | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 01:32 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 08:17 | CGY | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | CGY | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 2 - 1 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.3 - 2.7
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