New York Islanders at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-11-19 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 New York Islanders

Win Probability

CGY: 57.0%

NYI: 43.0%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.35

NYI: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	31	30	1	96.8%	2.65	1	1.65
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	33	30	3	90.9%	4.68	4	1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	NYI 3 - 2 CGY	NYI	NYI
2026-01-17	CGY 4 - 2 NYI	CGY	CGY
2025-03-22	NYI 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	NYI
2024-11-19	CGY 2 - 1 NYI	CGY	CGY
2024-02-10	NYI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.81
1	NYI	8	1	0.60
2	CGY	10	1	0.79
2	NYI	11	0	0.67
3	CGY	17	0	0.75
3	NYI	16	0	0.87
4	CGY	3	1	0.40
4	NYI	4	0	0.34
5	CGY	3	2	1.93
5	NYI	2	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0