Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-11-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 45.8%

VGK: 54.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.00

VGK: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	VGK
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.86
1	VGK	14	0	0.52
2	TOR	9	1	0.65
2	VGK	18	0	0.98
3	TOR	21	2	2.28
3	VGK	11	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9