San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-11-20 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

DAL: 73.1%

SJS: 26.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 4.32

SJS: 1.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 38%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

SJS

Mackenzie Blackwood - 10-25-4 | 0.899 SV% | 3.45 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	21	2	91.3%	2.38	1	0.38
SJS	Mackenzie Blackwood	31	26	5	83.9%	5.05	6	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DAL at home vs SJS: 4-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	DAL
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	SJS
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	18	1	1.37
1	SJS	12	1	0.98
2	DAL	14	1	0.81
2	SJS	11	0	0.81
3	DAL	14	4	2.86
3	SJS	10	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.3 - 2.0