Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-11-21 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 66.4%

VGK: 33.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.29

VGK: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	OTT
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	OTT
2024-02-24	OTT 4 - 3 VGK	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	19	0	0.71
1	VGK	18	2	1.32
2	OTT	8	3	1.19
2	VGK	16	2	1.82
3	OTT	25	0	1.34
3	VGK	9	2	1.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2