New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-11-21 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 46.1%

NYI: 53.9%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.88

NYI: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Alex Lyon	23	22	1	95.7%	1.51	0	0.51
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	31	29	2	93.5%	2.40	1	0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	DET 3 - 2 NYI	DET	DET
2025-11-20	DET 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-10-23	NYI 7 - 2 DET	NYI	NYI
2024-11-25	NYI 2 - 4 DET	DET	NYI
2024-11-21	DET 2 - 1 NYI	DET	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	15	1	0.87
1	NYI	12	0	0.50
2	DET	16	0	0.69
2	NYI	11	0	0.39
3	DET	15	0	0.84
3	NYI	12	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2