New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2024-11-21 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 42.1%
NYI: 57.9%
Expected Goals
DET: 2.58
NYI: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 36%
Over 6.5: 25%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 29-22-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
| Stat | DET | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.851 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.841 | 0.940 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • DET at home vs NYI: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | DET 3 - 2 NYI | DET | DET |
| 2025-11-20 | DET 0 - 5 NYI | NYI | DET |
| 2025-10-23 | NYI 7 - 2 DET | NYI | NYI |
| 2024-11-25 | NYI 2 - 4 DET | DET | NYI |
| 2024-11-21 | DET 2 - 1 NYI | DET | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:51 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 15:14 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 19:08 | DET | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 New York Islanders
Expected: 2.6 - 3.0
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