Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-11-21 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 45.1%

CAR: 54.9%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.06

CAR: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

CAR

Spencer Martin - 7-9-2 | 0.889 SV% | 3.30 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	22	20	2	90.9%	1.93	1	-0.07
CAR	Spencer Martin	21	17	4	81.0%	2.81	2	-1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 88% • NJD at home vs CAR: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CAR 5 - 2 NJD	CAR	CAR
2026-01-17	NJD 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-01-04	NJD 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-10-09	CAR 6 - 3 NJD	CAR	CAR
2025-04-29	CAR 5 - 4 NJD	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	18	2	1.15
1	CAR	14	0	0.73
2	NJD	20	0	1.01
2	CAR	11	1	0.65
3	NJD	9	0	0.65
3	CAR	14	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 4 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2