Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2024-11-21 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 57.8%
COL: 42.2%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.28
COL: 2.67
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | WSH | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.917 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • WSH at home vs COL: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | COL 5 - 2 WSH | COL | COL |
| 2024-11-21 | WSH 1 - 2 COL | COL | WSH |
| 2024-11-15 | COL 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | COL |
| 2024-02-13 | WSH 3 - 6 COL | COL | WSH |
| 2024-01-24 | COL 6 - 2 WSH | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:04 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 14:19 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 03:29 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.3 - 2.7