Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2024-11-21 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 7 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 44.7%

TBL: 55.3%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 4.48

TBL: 3.80

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	30	24	6	80.0%	2.80	2	-3.20
TBL	Jonas Johansson	43	36	7	83.7%	4.01	3	-2.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CBJ at home vs TBL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	TBL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TBL
2026-01-24	CBJ 8 - 5 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-18	CBJ 3 - 2 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-04	TBL 6 - 2 CBJ	TBL	TBL
2024-12-17	TBL 5 - 3 CBJ	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	14	0	0.96
1	TBL	15	1	1.58
2	CBJ	27	2	1.96
2	TBL	17	1	0.78
3	CBJ	14	1	1.01
3	TBL	6	0	0.33
4	CBJ	1	0	0.08
4	TBL	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 8.3

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 7 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 4.5 - 3.8