Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

PHI: 58.4%

CHI: 41.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.39

CHI: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	21	19	2	90.5%	2.20	2	0.20
CHI	Petr Mrazek	37	34	3	91.9%	2.90	1	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PHI at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	PHI 5 - 1 CHI	PHI	PHI
2025-12-23	CHI 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-03-23	CHI 7 - 4 PHI	CHI	PHI
2024-11-23	PHI 3 - 2 CHI	PHI	PHI
2024-03-30	PHI 1 - 5 CHI	CHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.84
1	CHI	12	0	0.46
2	PHI	17	0	0.89
2	CHI	9	2	1.37
3	PHI	17	1	0.98
3	CHI	12	0	0.36
4	PHI	1	0	0.19
4	CHI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8