Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 53.4%

VGK: 46.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.21

VGK: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	MTL
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	0	0.71
1	VGK	13	0	1.04
2	MTL	9	0	0.37
2	VGK	16	3	1.80
3	MTL	17	1	1.28
3	VGK	4	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4