Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 51.9%

VGK: 48.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.14

VGK: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	28	22	6	78.6%	3.11	3	-2.89
VGK	Adin Hill	17	15	2	88.2%	2.36	1	0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	MTL
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	10	0	0.71
1	VGK	13	0	1.04
2	MTL	9	0	0.37
2	VGK	16	3	1.80
3	MTL	17	1	1.28
3	VGK	4	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3