Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 52.2%

VAN: 47.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.39

VAN: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	21	17	4	81.0%	2.15	1	-1.85
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	29	26	3	89.7%	3.15	2	0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs VAN: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	VAN 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-13	OTT 2 - 1 VAN	OTT	OTT
2024-12-21	VAN 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-23	OTT 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	OTT
2024-01-02	VAN 6 - 3 OTT	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	1	1.15
1	VAN	10	0	0.48
2	OTT	13	1	0.91
2	VAN	12	0	0.70
3	OTT	16	0	1.09
3	VAN	7	1	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2