Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 51.8%

DAL: 48.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.05

DAL: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	TBL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	2	1.39
1	DAL	12	0	0.96
2	TBL	9	0	0.67
2	DAL	15	1	0.90
3	TBL	13	0	0.69
3	DAL	12	1	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9