Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-23 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 56.4%

DAL: 43.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.28

DAL: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	24	4	85.7%	2.58	2	-1.42
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	27	2	93.1%	2.75	2	0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	DAL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	TBL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	2	1.39
1	DAL	12	0	0.96
2	TBL	9	0	0.67
2	DAL	15	1	0.90
3	TBL	13	0	0.69
3	DAL	12	1	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9