Utah Hockey Club at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-11-24 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Utah Hockey Club

Win Probability

TOR: 58.2%

UTA: 41.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.42

UTA: 2.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	26	24	2	92.3%	2.54	1	0.54
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	35	32	3	91.4%	4.35	2	1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • TOR at home vs UTA: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	UTA 6 - 1 TOR	UTA	UTA
2025-11-05	TOR 5 - 3 UTA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-10	UTA 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	UTA
2024-11-24	TOR 3 - 2 UTA	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.44
1	UTA	19	1	1.12
2	TOR	31	2	2.95
2	UTA	9	0	0.62
3	TOR	14	0	0.96
3	UTA	16	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6