Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-11-25 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 2 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 48.2%
COL: 51.8%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.33
COL: 3.00
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 31-6-6 | 0.921 SV% | 2.02 GAA
| Stat | TBL | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.968 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.924 | 0.902 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TBL at home vs COL: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | TBL 4 - 2 COL | TBL | COL |
| 2025-11-04 | COL 3 - 2 TBL | COL | COL |
| 2024-11-25 | TBL 8 - 2 COL | TBL | COL |
| 2024-10-30 | COL 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | COL |
| 2024-02-15 | TBL 6 - 3 COL | TBL | COL |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 2 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0
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