Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-11-25 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 53.0%

WSH: 47.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.41

WSH: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Spencer Knight	31	27	4	87.1%	4.83	4	0.83
WSH	Logan Thompson	21	20	1	95.2%	2.25	2	1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • FLA at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	11	2	0.72
1	WSH	16	1	0.79
2	FLA	23	0	1.10
2	WSH	16	0	0.73
3	FLA	9	0	0.42
3	WSH	20	3	3.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1