St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-11-25 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 54.8%

STL: 45.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.54

STL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	44	39	5	88.6%	6.12	4	1.12
STL	Joel Hofer	29	27	2	93.1%	2.92	1	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • NYR at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	STL 1 - 2 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-11-24	NYR 3 - 2 STL	NYR	NYR
2024-12-15	STL 3 - 2 NYR	STL	STL
2024-11-25	NYR 2 - 5 STL	STL	NYR
2024-03-09	NYR 4 - 0 STL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	19	0	1.15
1	STL	15	0	1.00
2	NYR	14	0	0.78
2	STL	23	2	2.53
3	NYR	11	1	0.99
3	STL	18	2	2.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8