Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-11-25 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

PHI: 47.6%

VGK: 52.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.14

VGK: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	32	27	5	84.4%	3.16	2	-1.84
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	38	34	4	89.5%	5.15	4	1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • PHI at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	1	0.81
1	VGK	8	0	0.47
2	PHI	12	3	1.62
2	VGK	20	1	1.08
3	PHI	22	0	1.24
3	VGK	9	0	0.63
4	PHI	9	0	1.23
4	VGK	0	0	0.00
5	PHI	3	0	0.24
5	VGK	2	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2