Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2024-11-25 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

CAR: 69.2%

DAL: 30.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 4.04

DAL: 2.43

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

CAR

Spencer Martin - 7-9-2 | 0.889 SV% | 3.30 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Spencer Martin	19	15	4	78.9%	3.73	4	-0.27
DAL	Jake Oettinger	34	28	6	82.4%	3.82	2	-2.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CAR at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	CAR 6 - 3 DAL	CAR	CAR
2025-10-25	DAL 3 - 2 CAR	DAL	CAR
2025-01-21	DAL 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-11-25	CAR 6 - 4 DAL	CAR	CAR
2024-02-24	CAR 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	8	1	0.68
1	DAL	12	2	1.71
2	CAR	20	0	0.92
2	DAL	11	2	1.32
3	CAR	18	1	2.22
3	DAL	9	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 4.0 - 2.4