Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-11-25 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 62.0%

DET: 38.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.73

DET: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	21	17	4	81.0%	2.83	2	-1.17
DET	Alex Lyon	29	27	2	93.1%	2.91	3	0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs DET: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	DET 3 - 2 NYI	DET	DET
2025-11-20	DET 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-10-23	NYI 7 - 2 DET	NYI	NYI
2024-11-25	NYI 2 - 4 DET	DET	NYI
2024-11-21	DET 2 - 1 NYI	DET	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	18	0	0.61
1	DET	11	1	0.61
2	NYI	10	1	0.87
2	DET	14	0	0.71
3	NYI	17	2	1.43
3	DET	15	1	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8