Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2024-11-25 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 50.6%

WPG: 49.4%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.92

WPG: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 39%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	32	28	4	87.5%	3.18	3	-0.82
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	44	43	1	97.7%	3.04	0	2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • MIN at home vs WPG: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	MIN 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	MIN
2025-12-27	WPG 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WPG
2025-11-23	WPG 0 - 3 MIN	MIN	WPG
2025-10-28	MIN 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	MIN
2024-12-21	WPG 5 - 0 MIN	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	25	0	1.60
1	WPG	10	0	0.32
2	MIN	19	0	1.19
2	WPG	19	2	1.75
3	MIN	10	0	0.25
3	WPG	17	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0