Boston Bruins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 6 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 69.0%

BOS: 31.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.42

BOS: 2.53

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	21	15	6	71.4%	2.45	2	-3.55
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	24	21	3	87.5%	2.20	1	-0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs BOS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	NYI 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-11-04	NYI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-10-28	BOS 5 - 2 NYI	BOS	NYI
2025-02-27	BOS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-05	BOS 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	0	0.87
1	BOS	17	0	0.65
2	NYI	10	1	0.81
2	BOS	11	0	0.32
3	NYI	16	0	0.53
3	BOS	8	2	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 6 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.5