Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-11-27 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

COL: 67.9%

VGK: 32.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.15

VGK: 2.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	24	23	1	95.8%	2.08	1	1.08
VGK	Adin Hill	38	36	2	94.7%	5.51	2	3.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • COL at home vs VGK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	12	0	0.59
1	VGK	13	0	0.65
2	COL	17	0	1.31
2	VGK	8	0	0.62
3	COL	24	0	1.90
3	VGK	6	1	0.45
4	COL	7	1	0.80
4	VGK	0	0	0.00
5	COL	5	1	0.91
5	VGK	5	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 2.1