New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-11-29 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 1 New York Rangers

Win Probability

PHI: 55.7%

NYR: 44.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.35

NYR: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	23	22	1	95.7%	1.91	0	0.91
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	35	32	3	91.4%	5.13	3	2.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • PHI at home vs NYR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	18	1	2.06
1	NYR	8	0	0.46
2	PHI	16	0	1.01
2	NYR	10	0	0.45
3	PHI	13	2	2.05
3	NYR	14	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 1 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0