New York Islanders at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-11-29 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 New York Islanders

Win Probability

WSH: 60.3%

NYI: 39.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.87

NYI: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	24	20	4	83.3%	2.11	1	-1.89
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	26	21	5	80.8%	3.04	2	-1.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	NYI
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	2	1.54
1	NYI	15	0	0.77
2	WSH	10	0	0.51
2	NYI	11	1	0.84
3	WSH	13	0	0.93
3	NYI	6	0	0.50
4	WSH	1	0	0.06
4	NYI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.9 - 3.2