Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-11-29 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

BOS: 47.6%

PIT: 52.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.15

PIT: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	36	34	2	94.4%	2.39	1	0.39
PIT	Tristan Jarry	31	30	1	96.8%	2.39	1	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BOS at home vs PIT: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	9	0	0.47
1	PIT	14	0	0.89
2	BOS	11	1	0.92
2	PIT	23	1	0.96
3	BOS	17	0	1.00
3	PIT	11	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2