Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-01 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

DAL: 61.2%

WPG: 38.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.20

WPG: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	26	1	96.3%	1.90	0	0.90
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	31	28	3	90.3%	4.31	3	1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • DAL at home vs WPG: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	0	0.81
1	WPG	8	0	0.46
2	DAL	17	1	1.44
2	WPG	14	0	0.75
3	DAL	12	2	2.05
3	WPG	18	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7