Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2024-12-01 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 41.3%

OTT: 58.7%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.29

OTT: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	33	30	3	90.9%	4.00	3	1.00
OTT	Linus Ullmark	37	32	5	86.5%	4.61	3	-0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • ANA at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	OTT 2 - 0 ANA	OTT	OTT
2025-11-20	ANA 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-12-11	OTT 5 - 1 ANA	OTT	OTT
2024-12-01	ANA 4 - 3 OTT	ANA	OTT
2024-03-06	ANA 2 - 1 OTT	ANA	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	14	1	1.04
1	OTT	17	1	1.36
2	ANA	17	0	0.98
2	OTT	14	1	1.51
3	ANA	9	0	0.31
3	OTT	19	1	0.77
4	ANA	5	0	0.39
4	OTT	3	0	0.18
5	ANA	3	2	1.89
5	OTT	2	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2