Dallas Stars at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2024-12-02 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 51.2%

DAL: 48.8%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.01

DAL: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	21	19	2	90.5%	2.09	0	0.09
DAL	Casey DeSmith	37	36	1	97.3%	3.36	4	2.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs DAL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DAL 3 - 6 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-01-31	UTA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	UTA
2026-01-15	UTA 2 - 1 DAL	UTA	DAL
2025-11-28	DAL 4 - 3 UTA	DAL	UTA
2025-04-12	DAL 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	17	2	1.80
1	DAL	14	0	0.85
2	UTA	14	1	0.86
2	DAL	10	0	0.52
3	UTA	15	1	0.70
3	DAL	10	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5