Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-12-03 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

BUF: 44.4%

COL: 55.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.15

COL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 43%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	41	36	5	87.8%	3.83	3	-1.17
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	30	26	4	86.7%	3.82	3	-0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BUF at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-13	COL 6 - 3 BUF	COL	COL
2025-10-13	BUF 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-02	COL 6 - 5 BUF	COL	COL
2024-12-03	BUF 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2023-12-13	COL 5 - 1 BUF	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	2	1.70
1	COL	12	0	0.35
2	BUF	16	0	0.82
2	COL	29	1	1.73
3	BUF	12	1	1.30
3	COL	22	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2