New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2024-12-03 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 1 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 45.5%
NYI: 54.5%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.63
NYI: 2.90
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 36%
Over 6.5: 22%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
| Stat | MTL | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.851 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.835 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • MTL at home vs NYI: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | NYI 1 - 4 MTL | MTL | NYI |
| 2026-03-21 | MTL 7 - 3 NYI | MTL | MTL |
| 2026-02-26 | MTL 3 - 4 NYI | NYI | MTL |
| 2025-03-20 | NYI 4 - 3 MTL | NYI | MTL |
| 2024-12-03 | MTL 2 - 1 NYI | MTL | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 07:23 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:55 | MTL | Goal |
| 4 | 02:39 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 1 New York Islanders
Expected: 2.6 - 2.9
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