Columbus Blue Jackets at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-12-03 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 0 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

CGY: 50.7%

CBJ: 49.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.95

CBJ: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 39%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	16	16	0	100.0%	1.54	0	1.54
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	22	19	3	86.4%	3.30	2	0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • CGY at home vs CBJ: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	CBJ 5 - 3 CGY	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-05	CGY 5 - 1 CBJ	CGY	CGY
2024-12-03	CGY 3 - 0 CBJ	CGY	CGY
2024-11-29	CBJ 5 - 2 CGY	CBJ	CBJ
2024-01-25	CGY 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.53
1	CBJ	10	0	0.32
2	CGY	18	1	1.36
2	CBJ	6	0	0.32
3	CGY	11	1	1.40
3	CBJ	16	0	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 0 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9