Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-04 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Nashville Predators

Win Probability

TOR: 58.5%

NSH: 41.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.40

NSH: 2.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	24	22	2	91.7%	3.02	2	1.02
NSH	Juuse Saros	28	25	3	89.3%	2.84	3	-0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • TOR at home vs NSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	NSH 5 - 3 TOR	NSH	NSH
2025-10-14	TOR 7 - 4 NSH	TOR	TOR
2025-03-22	NSH 5 - 2 TOR	NSH	NSH
2024-12-04	TOR 3 - 2 NSH	TOR	TOR
2023-12-09	TOR 4 - 0 NSH	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	1	0.88
1	NSH	13	1	1.30
2	TOR	10	0	0.30
2	NSH	11	0	0.67
3	TOR	13	2	1.66
3	NSH	18	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6