Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2024-12-04 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

ANA: 42.8%

VGK: 57.2%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.84

VGK: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 47%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	33	29	4	87.9%	4.86	6	0.86
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	20	19	1	95.0%	1.92	0	0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • ANA at home vs VGK: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-14	ANA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-12	VGK 3 - 2 ANA	VGK	VGK
2026-05-10	ANA 4 - 3 VGK	ANA	VGK
2026-05-08	ANA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-06	VGK 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	10	0	0.36
1	VGK	13	1	1.17
2	ANA	14	0	0.90
2	VGK	15	1	1.33
3	ANA	12	0	0.66
3	VGK	16	4	2.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.8 - 3.0