Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-12-05 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 51.1%

WPG: 48.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.04

WPG: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BUF at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	BUF
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	BUF
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.50
1	WPG	21	1	1.42
2	BUF	18	0	1.04
2	WPG	18	0	1.31
3	BUF	12	0	0.62
3	WPG	4	0	0.21
4	BUF	2	0	0.15
4	WPG	2	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2