San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-12-05 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

TBL: 77.8%

SJS: 22.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.40

SJS: 2.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

SJS

Vitek Vanecek - 17-9-3 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	20	1	95.2%	2.17	2	1.17
SJS	Vitek Vanecek	35	27	8	77.1%	2.87	1	-5.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs SJS: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	1	1.18
1	SJS	11	0	0.81
2	TBL	17	0	1.04
2	SJS	11	1	0.88
3	TBL	11	0	0.65
3	SJS	7	1	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 8 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.4 - 2.2