Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-12-05 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 7 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 54.3%

FLA: 45.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.31

FLA: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	28	21	7	75.0%	3.36	2	-3.64
FLA	Spencer Knight	34	29	5	85.3%	2.46	1	-2.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs FLA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	FLA 2 - 4 PHI	PHI	FLA
2025-10-13	PHI 5 - 2 FLA	PHI	FLA
2025-10-09	FLA 2 - 1 PHI	FLA	FLA
2025-01-13	PHI 4 - 3 FLA	PHI	FLA
2024-12-05	PHI 5 - 7 FLA	FLA	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	0	0.63
1	FLA	9	0	0.62
2	PHI	19	0	1.01
2	FLA	19	1	1.63
3	PHI	14	1	0.82
3	FLA	13	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 7 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.5